Scottish Independence - turmoil for Northern Ireland?

The question of Scottish independence has been prevalent in the news for the past few weeks, and returned to the agenda last week with the launch of the ‘better together’ unionist campaign. But one aspect that I have not heard anyone talk about is the fallout that a future independent Scotland would bring upon Northern Ireland.

The problem is fairly simple: the Good Friday Agreement states that while the majority of people in Northern Ireland wish to remain united to Great Britain in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (henceforth UK) state as opposed to with the Irish Republic state, the UK and Irish government are treaty-bound to ensure that is the case. But should Scotland leave the UK, the UK would cease to exist. This is because of the four constituent members of the UK – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – only England and Scotland have the legal status of being countries, and the foundation of the political UK (as opposed to the Union of the Crowns which is another issue…) is the political integration of England and Scotland.

Wales’ legal status is as a ‘principality’, and its governing affairs were tied to England’s a long time before the 1707 Acts of Union. Ireland meanwhile, existed as an independent state outside of the UK until 1801, became part of the UK, and then seceded again 1922. Except that 6 of Ulster’s 9 counties where the majority wished to remain in the UK were permitted to do so, and hence the entity of ‘Northern Ireland’ was established. Its status with in the UK is that of a ‘province’.

Thus the severing of Scottish political affairs from Westminster would end the UK, and those who hold the political philosophy of British Unionism (whether in Northern Ireland or elsewhere within the Isles) would have no supra-British state to which they owe loyalty. This, to put it bluntly, is a major problem, as the identity of ‘Unionist’ or ‘Republican’ in Northern Ireland of course runs far deeper than constitutional predilection. The Good Friday Agreement (GFA) remains a successful peace agreement and essential to the future of the province, and yet it would be entirely undermined constitutionally should the UK cease to exist. The framers of the Good Friday Agreement simply did not foresee the possibility that the UK or Irish Republic would ever cease to be. Yet serious thought must be given to this issue otherwise there is a real possibility of a return to ongoing violence in Northern Ireland should either community become disenfranchised (in the broadest of terms).

So what is the way forward should Scotland declare independence? There appear to be four options, which are outlined in ascending order of plausibility:

1.  Assume that all references to the ‘UK’ or ‘British Citizenship’ in the GFA are now replaced with ‘England’ (which would technically be the correct name for the new state covering England & Wales) and ‘English citizenship’. This is a completely ludicrous option as Northern Ireland Unionists do not identify themselves as English, but as British (and sometimes as Irish as well), so being governed by England would be equally as abhorrent to both the Unionist and Nationalist communities. Additionally, the English state would have no constitutional obligation or responsibility towards the province of Northern Ireland as the union would be dissolved.  Hence this ‘neat’ option, which many people seem to be assuming, is not an option.

2. Northern Ireland to become an independent state. While a better solution than the previous option, there is very little support for this amongst either community in the province. The term ‘Northern Irish’ exists only to describe that someone is from the province; it is not an identity or nationality, and thus imposing this solution would ride roughshod over both community’s right to self-determining-identification.

3. Northern Ireland to secede to the Irish Republic. Under the Good Friday Agreement this would only happen if a majority expressed the desire to do so through a referendum, and currently the majority are against this course of action. However, many ‘softer’ Unionists might see this as the most realistic geo-political option should the UK cease to exist. The power-sharing agreement in the province itself would remain unaltered.

4. A new pan-British Isles Union is established (consisting of England, Ireland, Wales, Ireland, The Channel Islands and the Isle of Man) which, while not a sovereign state in its own right, would have technical sovereignty over Northern Ireland and continue to issue British passports to all within the constituting nations who wish for a British rather than national passport. In this arrangement, Northern Ireland would be considered as a province of Ireland, but sovereignty would only pass to the Dublin government if the majority of the people express the desire for it. This is a highly desirous solution, and would have geo-political benefits beyond the constitutional solution for Northern Ireland. But there are problems – the international community would have to assent to recognising pan-British identity without the existence of a pan-British state. Secondly, Ireland would have to agree to participate in this Union

Of the four options, only three and four seem realistic, and as things stand, only four would politically plausible to both nationalists and unionist in Northern Ireland. Perhaps there are more options (I am not a constitutional expert) but regardless, the potential for turmoil in Northern Ireland must be faced, and it would be a very good thing if the nettle was grasped now, even if Scotland doesn’t end up dissolving the UK in two years time.