Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Words of joy, words of sorrow...


For those who best express things through the written word, triumph and tragedy are the greatest challenges. How can one capture either the heights of elation or the bitterness of mourning that are, literally, beyond words? Yet it is those time when the wordsmith is most needed, for it is those times when people desperately seek to bridge the gulf between what they are feeling and what they can express. This is almost the definition of art itself, for it is from the extremes of human experience that the majority of great art finds it richest resource. Now, I can assure you that I do not consider myself a literary great. But I do consider myself as someone who best expresses themselves through writing. I write in various forms – song lyrics, poems, analysis & opinion (i.e. blogging) and have a couple of nascent novel ideas. The past couple of weeks I have seen a flurry of writing that I’ve not experienced for a long while; not incidentally there have simultaneously been things of both great joy and sorrow going on. The point of these musings? I have come to appreciate afresh that writing is a powerful, valuable, God-given entity that has a life-affirming and healing power both for the author and those far beyond; the ability to connect in the midst of our brightest and darkest hours.

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Continuing on the theme of the power of writing, I recently came across this astonishing quote from Victor Hugo that I had to share: “I feel within me that future life. I am like a forest that has been razed; the new shoots are stronger and brighter. I shall most certainly rise toward the heavens the nearer my approach to the end, the plainer is the sound of immortal symphonies of worlds which invite me. For half a century I have been translating my thoughts into prose and verse: history, drama, philosophy, romance, tradition, satire, ode, and song; all of these I have tried. But I feel I haven’t given utterance to the thousandth part of what lies within me. When I go to the grave I can say, as others have said, “my day’s work is done”. But what I cannot say, “my life is done”. My work will recommence the next morning. The tomb is not a blind alley; it is a thoroughfare. It closes upon the twilight, but opens upon the dawn.”

Friday, 5 October 2012

American Election Prediction Special


Yes, as promised last week, American Election FaceOFF is here! I go head to head with American Politics Geek Extraordinaire Mark Summers and attempt to call, state-by-state, the 2012 US Presidential Election. The rules are simple – we make our prediction, and whoever gets the most states correct wins. We thought a month before the election was about right – far enough away that it requires some political acumen beyond simply plagiarising the latest polls, but not so far as to make it all a wild stab in the dark. So, without further ado, here are my state by state predictions:

Alabama – Republican (R)
Alaska – (R)
Arizona – (R)
Arkansas – (R)
California – Democrat (D)
Colorado – (D)
Connecticut – (D)
Delaware – (D)
Florida - (R)
Georgia - (R)
Hawaii – (D)
Idaho - (R)
Illinois – (D)
Indiana – (R)
Iowa - (R)
Kansas - (R)
Kentucky - (R)
Louisiana - (R)
Maine – (D, all districts)
Maryland - (D)
Massachusetts – (D)
Michigan - (D)
Minnesota – (D)
Mississippi – (R)
Missouri - (R)
Montana - (R)
Nebraska - (R, all districts)
Nevada – (D)
New Hampshire – (D)
New Jersey – (D)
New Mexico – (D)
New York - (D)
North Carolina – (D)
North Dakota – (R)
Ohio - (R)
Oklahoma - (R)
Oregon – (D)
Pennsylvania – (D)
Rhode Island – (D)
South Carolina - (R)
South Dakota - (R)
Tennessee - (R)
Texas - (R)
Utah - (R)
Vermont – (D)
Virginia – (D)
Washington – (D)
Washington DC – (D)
West Virginia - (R)
Wisconsin - (R)
Wyoming - (R)

If this voting pattern were to happen, it would yield an Obama victory with 284 electoral college votes vs Romney’s 254. Now, I realise a few things:

1)      This is a lot closer than most people are currently calling the election.
2)      Awarding Romney Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin while still giving Obama the overall victory is an aberration from conventional psephological wisdom.
3)      This is accounted for by calling Virginia and North Carolina for Obama.
4)      The above two decisions could well be utter foolishness that hand victory to Mark Summers. However, if they are correct I would expect every polling organisation in America to be offering me a job with immediate effect. A worthwhile risk.

Roll on election night, politics does not get any better than this…