American Election Prediction Special

Yes, as promised last week, American Election FaceOFF is here! I go head to head with American Politics Geek Extraordinaire Mark Summers and attempt to call, state-by-state, the 2012 US Presidential Election. The rules are simple – we make our prediction, and whoever gets the most states correct wins. We thought a month before the election was about right – far enough away that it requires some political acumen beyond simply plagiarising the latest polls, but not so far as to make it all a wild stab in the dark. So, without further ado, here are my state by state predictions:

Alabama – Republican (R)

Alaska – (R)

Arizona – (R)

Arkansas – (R)

California – Democrat (D)

Colorado – (D)

Connecticut – (D)

Delaware – (D)

Florida - (R)

Georgia - (R)

Hawaii – (D)

Idaho - (R)

Illinois – (D)

Indiana – (R)

Iowa - (R)

Kansas - (R)

Kentucky - (R)

Louisiana - (R)

Maine – (D, all districts)

Maryland - (D)

Massachusetts – (D)

Michigan - (D)

Minnesota – (D)

Mississippi – (R)

Missouri - (R)

Montana - (R)

Nebraska - (R, all districts)

Nevada – (D)

New Hampshire – (D)

New Jersey – (D)

New Mexico – (D)

New York - (D)

North Carolina – (D)

North Dakota – (R)

Ohio - (R)

Oklahoma - (R)

Oregon – (D)

Pennsylvania – (D)

Rhode Island – (D)

South Carolina - (R)

South Dakota - (R)

Tennessee - (R)

Texas - (R)

Utah - (R)

Vermont – (D)

Virginia – (D)

Washington – (D)

Washington DC – (D)

West Virginia - (R)

Wisconsin - (R)

Wyoming - (R)

If this voting pattern were to happen, it would yield an Obama victory with 284 electoral college votes vs Romney’s 254. Now, I realise a few things:

1)      This is a lot closer than most people are currently calling the election.

2)      Awarding Romney Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin while still giving Obama the overall victory is an aberration from conventional psephological wisdom.

3)      This is accounted for by calling Virginia and North Carolina for Obama.

4)      The above two decisions could well be utter foolishness that hand victory to Mark Summers. However, if they are correct I would expect every polling organisation in America to be offering me a job with immediate effect. A worthwhile risk.

Roll on election night, politics does not get any better than this…